Project Risk Management: Comparative Analysis of Methods for Project Risks Assessment

Mira Mileusnić, Karolina Horvatinčić

Abstract


Analysis of project risks leads to a deeper understanding of potential problems in the course of the project. A number of techniques and tools are used to that purpose, which can ensure effective assessments both quantitative assessments and measures for every project risk, and qualitative assessment in order to sort project risks according to their rank and category. This article analyzes some of the methods from the aspect of their advantages and disadvantages in application with the aim to facilitate the selection of the most convenient method for the particular project. A comparison was made of the following methods: PERT, Brainstorming, Delphi, Monte Carlo, sensitivity analysis method, probability analysis method, and the Decision Tree. Comparative analysis of methods for the assessment of project risks include those variables that have a major impact on the cost, time, or benefits, on which the project is most sensitive to. It is based on the relation of a particular technique or tools towards the description of the risk, towards all possible outcomes of risk, magnitude or seriousness of outcome, probability of the appearance of the risk event, probability of the possible outcome, time of the risk event and the interaction of the outcome of the risk with other parts of the observed project or of other projects.


Keywords*


project risk management, risk assessment, simulation

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